Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 30.289806 33.848158 37.965117 43.160286 49.662442 57.709372 68.729395
2025-03-23 25.260656 29.674071 35.261245 43.127222 54.435689 71.114426 100.100400
2025-03-30 21.976665 26.728008 33.145183 42.978038 58.878838 86.636066 150.199266
2025-04-06 19.371783 24.117607 30.820596 41.746055 61.126324 100.366292 221.418076
2025-04-13 18.318313 23.411245 30.982549 44.275946 70.862974 137.852958 515.345408
2025-04-20 16.865481 21.894233 29.606995 43.805148 74.628727 166.813216 1288.731011
2025-04-27 15.845476 20.876955 28.828707 44.172182 80.491812 214.005811 34534.585430
2025-05-04 15.023338 20.056148 28.227932 44.702861 87.186430 285.493803 NaN
2025-05-11 14.265047 19.248844 27.523093 44.836165 93.044367 383.513151 NaN
2025-05-18 13.479183 18.321194 26.483602 44.013634 95.659778 484.410588 NaN
2025-05-25 12.913901 17.702624 25.921549 44.134860 101.739574 712.226320 NaN
2025-06-01 12.352839 17.044404 25.209401 43.756810 105.963228 1055.296882 NaN
2025-06-08 11.801015 16.369616 24.411622 43.059588 108.855659 1632.149264 NaN
2025-06-15 11.315905 15.776227 23.713702 42.491234 112.215978 3058.967223 NaN
2025-06-22 10.894014 15.263850 23.124753 42.098836 116.406807 9918.771624 NaN
2025-06-29 10.417796 14.629959 22.244980 40.798250 115.332127 33972.512898 NaN
2025-07-06 10.331844 14.667980 22.696544 43.174172 137.030793 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.993219 14.238865 22.163308 42.696438 141.471277 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.749199 13.964407 21.924576 43.035510 152.449655 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.534798 13.730579 21.749494 43.537469 166.120114 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.305515 13.457179 21.467628 43.662167 177.578832 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.024154 13.075348 20.925881 42.873784 179.798482 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 8.824938 12.835427 20.674352 42.989191 192.234320 NaN NaN